Giants at Cowboys week 1 – pick & analysis

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 -109
Sometimes you know you are probably on the right side when you can’t find any logical reasons by bettors to take the opposite. That’s the case for the Cowboys game. Every reason I’ve read to take the Giants has to do with regression methods, a poor Cowboys’ home record, Giants’ recent record at Dallas or the loss of DeMarco Murray. There was no reason so far that tells me I could be on the wrong side. The Cowboys stomped the Giants last season and they could have scored more than 31 points in each game. While the Cowboys will have an improved pass rush with Randy Gregory, Jeremy Mincey and a healthy Demarcus Lawrence, the Giants will have a worse offensive line than last season. With the absence of Will Beatty, Ereck Flowers will play LT instead of RT where the Giants wanted him to develop. Flowers has been terrible in the pre-season. He will line up against Randy Gregory and Flowers already lost that matchup last season when the Hurricanes played the Cornhuskers. Gregory has flashed in pre-season and training camp. Marshall Newhouse will take the RT spot and he was flat out poor when replacing Andre Smith at Cincinnati last year. I expect Mincey and Lawrence to have a good day. Behind this rotation Ben Gardner, who was injured all year, looked terrific in the pre-season, both rushing the passer and stopping the run. On the inside you have DT Tyrone Crawford who was a beast last season and very hopefully Davon Coleman who looks like an upgrade over Nick Hayden. This is just a terrible matchup for the G-Men.
Victor Cruz is unlikely to play and even if he plays, you can’t expect him to be fluid after such a long absence from training. Morris Claiborne and Byron Jones looked better than expected, the Boys will be able to double Odell Beckham. The Giants also won’t be effectively running the ball. Sean Lee is a huge boost for the front seven at the Will and Hitchens is solid against the run.
On the other side it’s an even worse matchup for the Giants. This Dallas offensive line is outstanding. Zach Martin was cleared for practice after his concussion so the offensive line will be at full strength. Martin was handling Aaron Donald in joint practices, LOL. If you have watched last year’s games you have noticed that the Giants didn’t get any pressure on Tony Romo. This time they are missing their best pass rusher in Jason Pierre-Paul. I like the acquisition of Louis Nix, but will he see extended snaps and will the Giants have any shot on the interior against Martin, Frederick and Leary? Heck, no. Tony Romo will have a field day and the Boys will have no trouble running the ball. We don’t need to talk about Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, but Terrance Williams looked improved this season while Cole Beasley was very effective in the slot. The Giants have an awful injury situation on defense as four DBs are already out for the season and they have a weakness at safety with Stevie Brown and Landon Collins. They simply won’t prevent the Boys from scoring. I would be surprised if the Cowboys score less than 30 points. With the big advantage in the trenches I can’t see the Giants coming close to covering 2 TDs in this game and I wouldn’t wonder if Eli turns the ball over twice and gets sacked 3+ times. This looks like a Cowboys win from start to finish. Don’t get fooled by results in recent years. The Cowboys were two levels ahead of the Giants in 2014 and the discrepancy is even bigger this time.

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